In New Delhi: Despite rate increases from the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, local equities markets closed last week’s trading session higher, extending their gains on the strength of encouraging domestic indications and encouraging results.
The buying in index heavyweights contributed to the Sensex and Nifty’s 2% weekly gains. In keeping with the headline counterparts, indicators gauged to the second rung counters increased.
A sector-based 8% increase in metal counters brought them to the forefront. Pharma and PSU lenders had gains of 3%, and capital goods, industrials, energy, and oil & gas companies all did well.
Markets are slowly moving upward toward record highs, according to Ajit Mishra, VP of Research at Religare NSE 2.28% Broking, but volatility on the international front is now holding back the pace.
Bank stock prices appear ready to resume their upward trajectory after a two-week break. We advise favouring the top performers from the relevant sectors and accumulating them on dips because all sectors are influencing the move, he continued.
In the holiday-shortened week, with markets remaining shut on Tuesday, November 8, on account of Gurunanak Jayanti, factors including global worries, inflation, and domestic macroeconomic numbers, India Inc earnings are likely to guide the markets.
The following eight factors will influence the Indian domestic equity market this coming week:
- Inflation Concerns
In the upcoming week, the United States will release its October CPI statistics, reflecting the level of inflationary pressure. This will also provide hints regarding the US Fed’s upcoming rate hike despite recession concerns.
- Geographical Concerns
The market is still shaken by the Russian-Ukrainian issue, and any further escalation might send stocks down. Concerns about the troubled supply chain are already affecting attitudes. Additionally, the global participants will closely monitor China’s relaxed COVID-19 regulations.
- India IIP Numbers
In order to assess the development of the secondary sector, India will publish its industrial production figures for September 2022, which include the output from domestic mines, industries, and utilities. Industrial production measures the change in the total value of output produced by factories, quarries, and utilities after accounting for inflation.
India will also release its CPI figures this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks changes in product and service prices from the consumer’s point of view. This figure and its significance for sustaining price stability are closely watched by the central bank.
- Q2 Earnings
As the markets enter the final leg of the earnings season, a handful of companies will be widely tracked by the Dalal Street participants. The list includes blue chips like Coal India NSE -0.06 %, Divis Labs NSE -0.93 %, Tata Motors NSE 2.19 %, Either Motors, Apollo Hospitals NSE -0.74%, LIC Hindalco NSE 4.92% and M&M.
The companies that will release their second-quarter earnings results include Bharat Petroleum, One 97 Communications (Paytm), Godrej Consumer, PI Industries, 1.75%, Bosch, Pidilite Industries, 0.17 percent, Star Health, Adani Green Energy, 0.69%, Zomato, Adani Power, 3.00 percent, Info Edge, and 0.12 percent ABB India.
- Rupee Movement
Since India continues to have a large reliance on imports, traders will closely monitor changes in the value of the rupee relative to the dollar.
Due to ongoing foreign capital inflows and a declining value of the US dollar abroad, the rupee strengthened by 53 paise to end the day at 82.35 against the US dollar on Friday.
As the broad dollar retraced against its main crosses on Friday, the euro and the pound both rebounded from intraday lows, according to Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services NSE 0.11%. “We anticipate a sideways movement in the USD-INR and a quote in the area of 82.50-83.30.”
- FPI Flows
One of the most important things to keep an eye out for will continue to be the buying and selling activity by international organisations. Any shift in their viewpoint amid upbeat sentiments could hurt the markets as the holidays and the New Year draw near.
According to K Dileep, Head of PMS at Geojit Financial Services NSE -0.11%, FPIs continued to be net sellers in October. But November got off to a good start. They continue to be net purchasers, spending more over Rs 6,000 crore thus far
The growth story of India is still intact, so expect a respectable flow moving forward, he added. “In contrast to other emerging markets, India has better than anticipated profitability and favourable macro indicators. For the next few quarters, I do not anticipate any significant market movement on either side.”
- Six IPOs
In the forthcoming week, investors will have the opportunity to submit bids for six initial public offerings. The subscription period for the two current issues of Global Health Limited (Medanta) and Bikaji Foods International, which will end on Monday, November 7, has ended.
On Wednesday, November 9, subscriptions will also be available for the Rs 1,960 crore issue of Five Star Business Finance and the Rs 1,462 crore issue of Archean Chemical Industries.
They will be followed by Kaynes Technology’s initial stake sale, which starts taking subscriptions on November 10th. The subscription period for Inox Green Energy’s Rs 740 crore issue begins on Friday, November 11.
- Technical Prospects
Nifty managed to close over 18,100 levels on the weekly time frame and is still trading in the green. According to Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives at Samco Securities, the daily chart has maintained its pattern of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a bullish setting.
“Technically, the index is positioned directly above each of the main exponential moving averages. Although we have noticed some hesitancy at higher levels, we do not interpret this as cause for concern. Following a solid uptrend over the previous few weeks, traders are simply choosing to remove some capital from the market”, he added.
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